US intelligence assessment questions whether war could topple Iran’s regime
A secret US intelligence report has concluded that the military campaign led by the United States against Iran may not achieve the political aim of toppling the Iranian regime, even if military operations expand significantly.
The assessment comes as the administration of US President Donald Trump signals that the conflict could last for a long time as part of a military operation the administration says has “only just begun”.
According to a report by journalist Warren P. Strobel in The Washington Post, a confidential assessment prepared by the National Intelligence Council – the body that coordinates the estimates of the US intelligence community – concluded that even a large-scale attack on Iran is unlikely to topple the solid structure underpinning the regime, represented by the religious and military institutions of the Islamic Republic.
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The assessment, completed about a week before the start of the war on 28 February, examined several possible scenarios. These included a limited military campaign targeting senior leaders of the regime, and a broader assault on state institutions and the leadership structure.
In both scenarios, the intelligence analysis reached almost the same conclusion: Iran’s regime has institutional mechanisms that would allow it to maintain continuity of power even if the supreme leader were assassinated.
Sources familiar with the report told the newspaper that US intelligence agencies believe Iran’s religious and security establishment would rely on internally approved procedures to ensure a rapid transfer of power and prevent the collapse of the system.
The report also said it was “unlikely” that Iran’s divided opposition would come to power if a US war were to break out, whether the conflict was short or prolonged.
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